Trading Analysis - 8th Oct 2018

Alfacomp

8 October 2018

10:52AM


Enthusiastic buying before 8:30am led to the SP increasing by 3%  - the real spread appeared to continue to narrow, indicating a shortage of shares, until a 100K Sell (delayed) appeared at just before 9am. This was followed by another 125K Sell which appeared to knock the real bid back to the bottom of the advertised Bid level.

The nett trade position returned to a level of approximately 400K more Buys than Sells by 11am. This excess was partly caused by the Buy of £40,000 worth of shares at 9:50am - though the lack of any increase in buying level after that suggests that there may be yet another significant Sell yet to be revealed around 10am.

1:25PM


No further sell around 10am has shown up, but there was a 210K delayed Sell at 10:44 which dropped the nett trading position back to c. +100K, where it still stands.

End of Day


With little evidence of any significant selling or buying the MMs felt emboldened enough by a quarter past three to try moving the trading position down. This yielded little risk of their small day short position being increased and turned up trumps when it uncovered a significant Sell of 546,117 at 27.10p. This does not obviously correlate with any warrants block size and would seem to differ from the previous week's First Island selling in that it came not in response to buying pressure, but instead seemed to come from nowhere.

Good news the Market Makers now have 400,000 shares they will be looking to Sell tomorrow and they will do this not at 0.3p above 27.10p but may well instead allow the SP to rise to back above 28p. Why have a margin of 0.3p when you can easily treble it ?

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