Trading Analysis - 2nd Nov 2018

Alfacomp

2 November 2018

8:30AM 


The usual kind of pattern - quick walk up (by 7%) followed by a shallower walk down (this time only to +4.5%). There is clearly a strong excess of Buys, which the Market Makers will have to find somehow, or they will have a big, and getting bigger by the minute, problem.

10:15 AM 


Lots of delayed reports of trades - you will no doubt not be surprised to see. The highlighted sells are 400K and 450K in size - any more news on these and we will summarise it in a later update. Prices paid for shares (the Sells, i.e. squares) now starting to move up.

1:30PM 


Still an excess of Buys showing (note the scale on the nett trades axis was reduced to try and fit the nett trades excess of >1.4M in). The Price paid for shares still appears to be moving upwards and the spread has narrowed greatly. The green highlighted trades on the right hand side of the chart both appear to be triplet structured (250K then 50K) which may indicate the appearance of a new selling entity. These have been handled as per normal - only one of the three trades is counted as a sell, the other two are Inter-MM transfers which do not affect the Nett Trades position.

3:15PM 


The accumulation-distribution level seems pinned at 36.9p. There are a number of out-of-range type trades since 2pm - it is not clear where these are coming from - possibly trades transferred from foreign exchanges eg 'Over-the-counter' (OTC) in the US. The first of the duplicated trades, around 12:20 has now had an additional duplicate report revealed - make two pairs of duplicated 250K sells. Accordingly one of each pair is counted towards the nett trading position total.

End of Day


The usual fare of after hours reports of large trades, plus a few that alter the nature of the complex trades reported upon earlier in the day.

The two duplicated pairs of 250K trades at 12:19 are now preceded by a 500K trade two minutes beforehand and a slightly higher price - forming the same split triplet structure that was first observed and described in the trading analysis of the 23rd October - this then becomes only counted as a single sell of 500K. They could have made things easier for themselves by simply reporting this correctly at the time.

There are also other significant sells reported early on during the SP walkdown phase :- a single 300K at 8:17, a 450K duplicated pair at 8:34, a single 500K at 8:35 and a single 400K at 8:49 - all now highlighted. All highlighted trades taken together comprise a block of 2.2M shares - when you consider that this still leaves the MM's needing something like 1M shares at the end of the day you can see that PI buying has exceeded PI selling by somewhat over 3.2M shares.

The question of who is responsible for these significant sells is interestingly complicated by the new information that came out via the late afternoon notification of Golden Summit's increase in stake over 4%. This is a name that we have not heard before - whilst the TR1 notification asserts that Golden Summit went over 4% on the 19th of October this does not coincide with any significant buying patterns around that time - thus we may need to see the trades that surround the 15M trade that was reported earlier this week to understand if this is at all connected with the First Island selldown, and whether that continues or not.

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