Trading Analysis - 27th Dec 2018

Alfacomp

28 December 2018

End of Day


The progressive walkdown continued, as usual on minimal volume. Before 11am there is only a single sell of 100K, and nothing larger than this. At this point Buys exceed Sells by 200K and this excess increases to almost 500,000 just before 1pm.

At this point it looks like the first real PI sell of any significance occurs - a Sell of 121,122 at 37.63p - the excess of Buys falls to around 250,000. A further walkdown allows Buyers to pick up shares at around 37p at 3pm - at which point we see something very interesting (well of course we don't actually see it at 3pm, we have to wait until the end of day to see what actually happened):-


Again we see a trade of size 817,323 - the size of trade that we have seen repeated on the 17th, 18th and 19th of December. On those occasions they appeared after hours as 'TNCP' flagged trades and so were ignored as merely a reflection of something like off-market spreadbet houses. This is the first occasion since the 19th of December that an 817,323 sized trade has appeared, and this time inside hours and, as shown above, without the TNCP flag.

I believe that this trade is a long spread-bet, hedged via the 15:03 trade today, the bet placed with the same expectation of a significant price appreciation from this point, as occurred from the 17th to 19th Dec. Effectively this is someone calling the bottom of the latest gyration. This trade is priced at 38.04p - significantly above the 37p trading position just before.

Further buying after this led the trading position to move up a little, to 37.25p at the close, but now with an excess of Buys approaching almost 2 Million. This may signal the end of the latest down cycle, which may have been encouraged by MMs sensing weakness in the wider market - in this situation they went hunting for shares from distressed sellers but may have discovered that BMN shareholders are a much more rugged lot than they had expected.

The large trades delayed from the 21st December, but reported earlier today, will be analysed in their larger context in the fullness of time.


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