Trading Analysis - 25th Oct 2018

Alfacomp

25 October 2018

End of Day


A very busy day without an obvious trading pattern. That is until the very end of the day, when a large number of delayed trades were reported. The key trades and composite trades are highlighted in green. Working from the left we have:

8:49:55 - A Sell of 950K shares at 28.25p - this was only reported after the end of trading. What were reported at the time were the duplicate 950K trades an hour and 11 minutes later but priced instead at  28.10p - taken together these all match the same triplicate pattern observed in previous days. Thus only the first Sell is counted towards the Market Makers nett trading position. Almost a million shares apparently dropped into the market but the SP doesn't budge an inch. Curious, eh ?

11:25:14 - A Sell of 1.2 Million shares, again at 28.25p - this time all by itself. Again the SP barely moves, in fact the buying level moves marginally up. 

13:25:22 - A Sell of 650K shares, again at 28.25p - also all by itself. Again no impact on Bid, Ask or trading levels. What do you have to do to change the price ?

14:36:36 - A trade of 2.383 Million shares, this time at 28.50p - seemingly right at the level of the Accumulation-Distribution line at the time - is this a Buy or a Sell ?

Initially I thought it might be a Sell but then an opportune suggestion by a member of the LSE community made me consider the possibility that this was a Buy. This certainly makes more sense - all the other significant sells beforehand, and indeed after, are at the 28.25p level. But the key thing for me is that treating this trade as a Buy suddenly produces a nett trading position that has returned very close to the balanced position - we no longer have to find an explanation of what has happened to almost 5 Million shares - the answer is that 2.8M were Sells and that c. 2.4M of them were transferred to a new Buyer.

The 2:36pm paradox resolved we continue in rough balance until the end of the day, when a sequence of multiple 150K Sells at 28.25p are observed. LSE shows three 150K trades - at 16:17:21  thirteen seconds later and the last ten seconds later still (all appears as just the single rightmost green marker). ADVFN shows the first of these as a duplicated trade - so at least one of this pair should be discounted - this is the old inter-MM shuffle.

The question of whether this sequence should count as 3x150K Sells, or just 1x150K plus a couple of further inter-MM fumblings around after cannot be resolved at this time. Given what appears to be strong evidence of a large worked Buy earlier today perhaps this is the preamble to the same happening again tomorrow. At this point in time I am assuming that this sequence counts as 3x150K - leaving the end day trade position at around 650K more Sells than Buys. This leaves an outstanding MM short position of c. 3.5M shares, as shown below. Tomorrow we shall see if the end of day 150K conundrum disappears.




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