Trading Analysis - 24th Dec 2018

Alfacomp

24 December 2018

9:50AM


Anyone who saw the trading on the 21st Dec, especially the highly suspicious end of day auction, will not be surprised by the first 10 minutes of trading this morning.

A walkdown of multiple pence on miniscule volumes. Buyers take advantage of the sale prices on offer and rapidly buy what they can until 8:23 when a 150K Sell was reported which appeared to knock the Bid down again:-


One hour later of course we see a 150K counter-trade reported and this time it is a Buy:-


Yet again we see a rollover that has the SELL part reported Live but the Buy part reported Late.

Again strong buying takes advantage of these giveaway prices until a duplicate pair of 350K Sells is reported at 9:27, somewhat below the Bid of 40.8p at the time:-


As usual only a single of these is counted towards the MM's nett trading position - the other is simply an IMM, and inter Market Maker transfer.

Skip on 5 minutes and we are treated to a triplet of 150K trades - a duplicate pair of sells and a single buy, which again is treated as simply as one sell and one buy - effectively a rollover.

What we are seeing is repeated consistent manipulation of the share price downwards. This cannot go on for an extended period - at some point the MMs will have to print their big sell from their seller and close their position. Those who can should take advantage of these end of year sales as much as they can because once the MM's have closed their short position and shortchanged their tame-seller out of all of their shares they will be in a position to allow the share price to rise. In fact they will be forced to allow it to rise or else they would not be able to sell shares to new buyers at top dollar.

End of Day


Yet again we see a number of rollover pairs - closely spaced and similarly large sized trades but differing in price by something like 1/3rd to 1/2 the spread. Despite a precise duplicate pair Sell of 400K at 10:52:42 (one of which is classed as an Inter-MM trade) the excess of Buys increases past 1M and finishes at >1.25M at the end of trading.

The extension of the MMs short position that this implies, whilst at around an SP of 41p (the approximate sell price of the existing short) suggests that we may be near the end of the share overhang that has emboldened the MM's to go short to quite such a large extent.

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