Trading Analysis - 21st Nov 2018
21 November 2018
And so the whole blessed cycle of trading, manipulation, reporting and obfuscation starts again. By 8:38am there are apparently more than 640,000 more Buys than Sells.
Whilst this is seemingly consistent with a rise of 4% we obviously have to wait and see until we are allowed to see what actually has gone on in the markets today.
Would life really be any worse if the general public were allowed to see the real market ?
If you are going to report trades hours after they happen then it should be for ALL trades, not just a Market Maker selected group.
It has been suggested to me that the recovery today is surprisingly strong. The volume so far today, at 4.2M is only 1/3rd of what it was for the whole of yesterday. We are of course only about a third of the way through todays trading with delayed trades no doubt yet to be reported so perhaps the volumes will not be too dissimilar.
Today feels less frantic of course, because the SP is recovering and the LSE board is not being clogged by numerous "I only just invested in BMN but am concerned about the Vanadium bubble bursting" posts. Those who were not able to get the best deals yesterday or this morning may still be able to buy at 45p or less, but perhaps for not too much longer. Again there is still no evidence of the market makers balancing their books, and thus we will be forced to wait a little longer for the notification of large Sells that will be the smoking gun.
Systematic highlighting of Sells of 100K and over - a bit of a slackening in the pace since 10am - however Buys still strongly outnumber Sells - 209 vs 67 so far today. Total trading volume is around 5.1M with Buys outnumbering Sells by 1.3M shares. Still the MMs appear to be selling more shares than they are buying. More delayed reports expected.
End of Day
And so we come to the end of the day and a strong bounce back up by almost 8%. There's a couple of 250K Sells - one reported after hours, but nothing else drastic on the selling front. There's 3x 100K Buys and a single 100K Sell during the day, yet despite this apparent quiet the total volume is a reasonably healthy 6.5M - the same as as on the 15th and 16th of November when the SP was reaching it's all time peak.
The appearance of a new market maker (JBER - Berenberg) has been noted today, our second addition in as many months - it seems that they are not here to simply sit on the sidelines (unlike BMCM appears to do - though there are theories on that) and watch others control the market but have been actively participating in it today.
It will be interesting to see if average spreads reduce as a result of this new market participant. Having accurately identified Sells and Buys would of course normally be a disabling pre-requisite for such quantitative analysis - how fortunate we are therefore in having this information already available courtesy of the last 2 months trading analysis.
The advertised Bid-Ask spread is of course no guide to the real trading spread and if the newcomer is as 'aggressive', as some have suggested, it will be interesting to see if it is us or perhaps indeed the other market makers who are the on the receiving end of any excesses of testosterone.
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