Trading Analysis - 20th Nov 2018

Alfacomp

20 November 2018

10:20AM


As yesterday discussed the Market Makers are still able to play their traditional games. Still it provides a fantastic buying opportunity for anyone who understands and can prepare in advance for this behaviour.

Having now triggered a stop loss sell of 146,419 at 42.0p, and how many others at the same level yet to be revealed it may be that this particular chapter finishes abruptly. Maybe we shall even see a big sell to try and fill the 1.6M hole that the MMs have managed to make for themselves this morning.

1:55PM


What joy our new colour scheme ! I have highlighted all the significant sells that are over 100K in size. They all appear before 9:30, culminating in what appears to be a stop loss being triggered at 42.0p

What an interesting arrangement. No prizes for the first to suspect that this might be some kind of co-ordinated behaviour designed to reduce the share price.

SO very kind to give so many people the opportunity to buy shares (1.8M more Buys than Sells at the last count) at such cheap prices. If this is an external short then they may have bitten off more than they can chew once the Market Makers realise that they can take advantage of the shorters in the subsequent squeeze. 

If we instead see a number of large sells being dropped into the trading at low prices at the end of the day then we might conclude that the MMs have a tame seller who they can take for a bit of a ride whilst they joggle the SP down - watch carefully to see if the sum of these Sells adds up to more than that needed to feed todays buys - as it will indicate Market Makers who are accumulating cheap shares in their own back pockets ahead of the next rise upwards.


3:30PM


Fatbanker's third Buy hoves into sight and the excess of Buys now reaches 2.1M.


4:00 PM


The giveaway continues - someone is desperate to give those who are better informed a great christmas deal. Thanks very much.


End of Day


Recent developments in chart colouring technology have emboldened me to add a new second highlighting feature - as well as the significant trades earlier in the day (any sell of 100K or over - in green) I have chosen to highlight the trades that were reported after hours and were 50K and over (in yellow). These are taken from the following after hours trades:


You don't need to be a brilliant analyst of the Mir school to be able to see the two patterns here - two clear (non-elliot) waves of significant selling. Note that there is nothing arbitrary about the highlighting - all sells above 100K are shown in green and all trades over 50K reported after hours are shown in yellow (two of the 100K trades are actually Buys, but all the rest are Sells).

The trolls now surfacing on the LSE board only serve to reinforce the point that there is clearly some form of coordinated trading behaviour going on right now - all probably triggered as a result of the rapid rise and brief dalliance with the 50p mark. They do love the round numbers these Buffetts of the bedroom.

However in the grand scheme of things there are 6.6M Buys today versus only 5.3M Sells - the MM's as a result need to find an additional 1.3M shares so why are they being so accommodating to what would appear to be a pair of coordinated shorting attacks - in the past they have responded quickly with price rises once it has become apparent that buyers outnumber the shorters.

Quite simply because they wish to grab a chunk of shares at cheap prices - they clearly won't get them from independent PI's - we've demonstrated that today. I calculate that at the end of trading today the MMs now have an accumulated short position of some 4.05M shares. Some of this was developed above 48p but they did not manage to close their short position completely using the Wogen warrants - and when they were retained to pre-sell those warrants it appears they had to offer close to the going rates for them - thus they desperately need 4M cheap shares. A significant chunk of the short was developed at less than 40p so the average they got from selling may only be about 44p - they need to pay less than this - so what to do ?

Without the warrants to be able to fall back on the MMs may instead have chanced upon a tame, or distressed, seller. This poor sap will no doubt told at some point that the best price that could be got for their shares is no more than 42p. I predict that the MMs will take what they need from this seller, and some, and will present themselves with the black friday present of a long position to be able to take forward for the next rise up to and past 50p.

Remember the MMs control the share price to fill their own pockets. The sooner we get off SETSqx and onto SETS the sooner we will be able to get away from many of these games. This may happen sooner than many realise.

And why haven't our recent buyers ridden to the rescue - clearly they also have no interest in seeing the share price any higher than it needs to be. Their buying has recently been made public and they now have to step back into the shadows for a short while, let the SP consolidate, and hope that they can return to their stake building once they've managed to make everyone sweat a little.




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