Trading Analysis - 20th Dec 2018

Alfacomp

20 December 2018

9:30AM


It appears yesterday's rise into the close of trading was simply a prelude to be able to try and close the 500K short that one of the Market Makers appeared to take out yesterday afternoon. Thus we get a large scale walk down.

The good news is that despite 100K, 150K, 2x 250K and 3x50K (total 900K) sells being dropped in at the start the MMs are not getting anywhere with acquiring any significant number of shares at less that 48p - in the last hour they have managed to scrape together PI Sells of 300K shares. Better still PI's have bought 340K in the same time period. 

2:00PM


A lovely touchdown at 46.70p. They may pickup a few hundred thousand shares at this level, be happy and then let the price move back up. If you see this then you can see that it was just a short-term short being traded out. Normal service then resumes.

End of Day


Fantastically revealing trading today - it was evident within the first 5 minutes of trading that the MM's were deliberately trying to suppress the price, having created a short position yesterday afternoon. By 4 minutes and 20 seconds into trading we had already received live trade reports of 2x 250K and 1x150K Sells. As reported on the LSE discussion board there was none of the usual 1 hour or 2 hour delays in reporting trades over 100K this morning - how convenient from the perspective of someone who is trying to suppress the share price.

It also appears that this 650K of apparent sells also overstates the case significantly as both the 150K and 2x 250K appear to be part of a pair of triplet structures:


i.e. the real Sells into the market are really only 1x250K + 1x 150K - the others are just simple inter-Market Maker transfers. Only once you account for these trades correctly do you get anything like balanced nett trading before 9am.

As an aside although the lse.co.uk trade listings do not show a duplicate for the second part of the 150K triplet (at 8:04:20) this is shown clearly in the official stock exchange trade logs - excellent corroborating evidence !

 

Skip on a little bit (to 8:20am) and we then get a series of 3x50K Sells followed by a 250K Duplicate. Also shown live:


That's apparently 1.15Million in big Sells and it isn't even 8:30am yet. Naughty, naughty the actual total of Sells is half a million less than this.

The live appearance of these Sells, and their duplicates, again contrasts with the fact in exactly the same period of trading, before 8:30am a Buy of only 60,677 is delayed for one hour:


This is clearly asymmetric delaying of trades, designed to create the impression that there is very much more Selling going on than Buying. As the chart above shows they are actually in good balance for all of this time.

Skip on a little more, to 8:42 and we see what is perhaps the first genuine PI large Sell of the day - 266,500 at 48.1p which immediately causes the Bid to be dropped. Aha it seems that the plan of shaking shares free at low prices may appear to be working.

Having completely suppressed buying a series of smallish Sells upto 9:15am leads to the Bid being dropped heavily from 47.5p to 46.0p - as you can see at the moment there is no apparent reason for this. Had there really been a Sell at this point I suspect it would have been reported live. This is where they can really make their money - on Sellers now being prepared to accept prices some 5% lower than they were 1 hour previously. There's a nice chunky 300K duplicate, probably from a tame seller, dropped in at 1 second before 10am and then an obliging pair of 50K Sells within the next quarter of an hour. After those is what looks like it could be another PI Sell of 249K which gets uncovered at 10:55am.

At this point Market Makers have managed to purchase something like 600,000 more shares than they have sold - thanks in a major part to their tame seller who has provided them with 2x250K (1 triplet and 1 duplicate) 1 x150K (triplet) and 1x300K (duplicate) - a total of 950,000 shares at between 1 and 2.5p less than the market price at the opening of trading. Perhaps the tame seller doesn't know about this, or doesn't care. But if they do care and are reading this then there are simple measures that they can take to prevent themselves from getting ripped off like this -  1) hold on to your shares, or 2) fire your broker.

But I am getting ahead of myself as we are not yet halfway through yet ...

... continuing - we then have a 250K Sell at 11:43 at a clear Sell price of 46.25p, reported live, naturally. Then the same again - 250K at 46.25p at 13:20, also reported live...

Does this mean that we have another 500K of Sells being dropped into the market ? Are PI's haemorrhaging their shares ? No, I believe not, but again we are not given the truth until the following after hours trades are reported:-


Note the lowest two 250K trades - these correspond closely with the two live trades described above. Here they are shown inserted into the complete trade log in precise time order:



You will see that we now have what appear to be two perfect rollover pairs - a Buy of 250K at 46.50p followed by a Sell of 250K at 46.25p - thus there is actually no nett impact on the Market Makers true position. We are being misled once again  - these pairs are highlighted in the chart below:


Following on from these we then get a 100K Sell just before 2pm and the trading position appears to then settle before 4pm at 46.35p. The low outlier trade down at 45.50p appears to be a genuine mistake as it was reversed off immediately. The high outlier up at 48.0p appears as a duplicate - but is only small (16.5K) in size so is insignificant.

After 4pm we receive two more significant sells - a 300K Sell just after 4pm, and then a 333.5K Sell after hours.

You will see that throughout the day there has been a consistent attempt to paint the market as haemorrhaging Sells, when as the chart above shows there is nothing of the sort going on. In fact if it were not for a single large Sell after hours the nett trading position for the day would have finished positive - with more Buys than Sells.

The 20th December 2018 will go down perhaps as one of the great examples of the obfuscators art. Usually it doesn't matter as yesterday news is traditionally considered to be today's chip wrapper. Not this time, as we are watching everything.



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