Trading Analysis - 14th Nov 2018

Alfacomp

14 November 2018

8:23AM


In line with yesterday's prediction, and despite a false closing price of 47.5p the SP moved strongly up on opening and only halting at 50p. An excess of more than 1.3M Buys have been recorded at this point. 

Of course now they will try and walk the price down to try and get some of those shares. We shall see in the next 2 hours how successful that strategy turns out to be.

9:05AM


Reports of a big buy (2.5M) being worked are perhaps in line with the MM's tolerance of the huge buying excess this morning : nearly 2M more Buys than Sells so far, though we wait to see what happens with the delayed trade reports.

End of Day   


The full chart, showing all 888 trades is shown above. This shows highlighted the quite extensive set of after hours trade reports shown below:


The huge number of trades means that we again need to look in greater detail as shown in the charts below:


The first hour shows very strong buying and the MMs are happy to move the price up, despite running up a short position of almost 1M shares.


Despite a strange and very short term drop around 9am the SP held up strongly between 9 and 12. This also despite the fact that there are multiple delayed trades, all Sells (2x250K + 1x300K) which help drop the nett trading position from c. 1M excess Buys to around neutrality. I can find no evidence of these being duplicate pairs or Inter-MM movements of one another - i.e. there is no reason to suspect double counting of these Sells. There is trade duplication later in the day, but we will get to that later.

Around 10:15 there is an extended period of trading at very close to the 49.5p level - without any cues or indications of trades from shareholders it is hard to allocate these trades. Calling them all Sells, as I have done above, does impact the nett trading position to the tunes of c. -400K shares - thus a later refinement of this, if it were possible, might require a restatement of the end-day nett trade position, currently believed to be c.-580K (i.e. 580K more Sells than Buys).


After noon trading is somewhat quieter (how could it not be after the frantic morning ?) - but as can be seen on the information that we have available to us at present there is really no justifiable reason for the drop around 3pm. The real reason for this would be that it fits the Market Makers agenda two-fold - 1) they wish to ensure that day traders do not cash out with profits that they, the MMs, would otherwise have and 2) the MMs have been running a short position for the last couple of days, and will need to close that, either with cut-price warrant pre-sell shares or shares that they may be able to pick up from PI's - stop losses and the like.


There is a brief rally after 3:45 but then a series of 150K and 200K delayed trades are used to keep the nett trading position from getting out of hand. Three out of 4 of these trades turn out to be duplicate pairs - seemingly first a Sell from a PI or warrant holder and then an inter-Market-Maker transfer. A reasonable scenario is that warrant shares are being pre-sold to MM1 and they in turn transfer them on to MM2 who is the one that has been running the short position. it would appear that every thief needs their fence. 

We look forward to seeing if there are further delayed trades reported today.

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