Trading Analysis – 15th Jan 2018

Alfacomp

15 January 2018

In this weekend’s article on the previous months trading we explored the possibility that previous end day duplicated trades resulted from a PI sell plus an Inter-MM transfer and subsequently predicted that the Market Maker nett trade position had just moved from short to long so now we would see SP appreciation. This morning’s SP price rise of c. 5% is further supporting evidence for this explanation – now the MMs are long they are happy to see the SP rise.

The detailed trade analysis is shown below and will be updated during the day.

10:45AM c. 930K more Buys than Sells

1:45PM c. 1060K more Buys than Sells

End of Day 1.421M more Buys than Sells

Conclusion

There was also the delayed report of a 2M Buy (subsequently confirmed by MJXX) on Friday afternoon – the subsequent 5.4M trade (presumed a sell to MMs by someone like Erongo) then yielded an accumulated nett trading position for the Market Makers very close to zero.

Today’s strong buying now leaves the MMs short by c. 1.4M shares. If the buying does not continue then they may be able to walk the price back down and pick these shares up from their new friends at Erongo (assuming it is them selling). That’s two things that have to happen for them to be able to close their short cost effectively. If strong buying continues then it could be the same story tomorrow, with perhaps a similar conclusion tomorrow.

 

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